the end for Hillary

Posted by crayz

The Obama speech was terrific, and I would expect it to help restore the slipping poll numbers he's seen in recent days. But even more significant for this primary campaign is the news today that Michigan, like Florida, is unlikely to see a re-vote. If true, it's a stake through the heart of Hillary's campaign. There's no way they'll be able to seat both delegations with the numbers that came out of the unofficial primaries. Obama has a guaranteed pledged delegate lead and therefore the upper hand in deciding the eventual rules - so best case for Hillary is some kind of cut in the total numbers of delegates awarded while maintaining the existing ratios. Even that seems dreadfully unlikely for Michigan

This all but guarantees Hillary will go into the convention far behind in pledged delegates, popular vote, and states won. Far behind. Almost regardless of how well Obama's speech today plays in Middle America, it's going to wipe out any remaining plausible rationale for a mass abandonment of the superdelegates (who have been breaking almost universally for Obama for the past three months - the only lead Hillary has left is among her chummy DLC pals who've been committed to her since the beginning)

Hillary simply can't win, the end. It's over. The fat lady has been singing so long her voice beginning to go


Update: just wanted to add, it's unfortunate if these states never do hold fair contests, more so for the voters in those states than anyone else. In all likelihood re-votes would have resulted in a near-tie in Michigan and a slight to significant advantage for Hillary in Florida, and she deserved the opportunity to win those delegates. That said, I can hardly feel sympathy for her now - if as the frontrunner she had done the honorable thing the joined with Obama, Edwards, and most of the other candidates in wholeheartedly rejecting these unsanctioned votes, I think its quite likely the two states would have found a way to move or redo their primaries by now

Instead she gave only nominal support to the DNC position and almost certainly led these states to hold out a hope that they'd be given amnesty for their rebellion. Certainly if Clinton had dominated the race or even if the current Obama/Clinton positions were reversed, that outcome was likely. Only now that it's clear there's little chance of that happening have the states tried - too late - to reverse course. Hillary and the Democratic leaders of these states brought this outcome on themselves

Comments

Leave a response